Eight members of OPEC+ have agreed to increase oil output quotas for May by 206,000 barrels per day, even as ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt global supply.
News360 Info reports that the decision was reached during a virtual meeting held on Sunday, according to a statement released by the oil alliance.
However, despite the announced increase, industry observers say the additional supply may remain largely theoretical due to production constraints affecting key member countries.
Findings indicate that the modest quota increase may not translate into actual output, as major oil producers are grappling with disruptions linked to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Several top producers have seen their capacity hampered, with infrastructure damage and security concerns preventing meaningful increases in supply.
Meanwhile, a separate panel of the alliance, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, also met on Sunday and raised alarm over persistent attacks on oil infrastructure.
The committee noted that such attacks are “expensive and time-consuming to repair,” warning that they continue to weigh heavily on global supply.
The situation is further complicated by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, widely regarded as the world’s most critical oil transit route.
The waterway has effectively remained shut since late February due to the conflict, significantly cutting exports from key producers including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq.
Although Iran stated on Saturday that Iraq could freely transit the strait, and shipping data showed a tanker carrying Iraqi crude passing through on Sunday, uncertainty persists.
“It remains to be seen if more vessels will take the risk involved,” a source familiar with the development said.
Global crude oil prices have surged to nearly $120 per barrel, marking a four-year high, as supply disruptions continue to tighten the market.
The spike has triggered a ripple effect, with transport fuel prices rising sharply and putting pressure on consumers and businesses worldwide. Governments are also beginning to take steps aimed at conserving dwindling supplies.
Analysts warn that prices could climb even higher if the situation persists. Investment bank JPMorgan Chase projected that oil prices may exceed $150 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz extend into mid-May.
Despite the quota adjustment, the additional 206,000 barrels per day accounts for less than two per cent of the estimated supply lost due to the Hormuz closure.
Sources within the alliance told Reuters that the move primarily signals readiness to ramp up production once conditions stabilise and the key shipping route reopens.
Sanctions, Infrastructure Damage Hinder Output
Beyond the Gulf region, other producers are also facing challenges.
Russia, for instance, has been unable to increase production due to Western sanctions and damage to oil infrastructure linked to its ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
The scale of the current disruption is unprecedented, with estimates suggesting that between 12 million and 15 million barrels per day, up to 15 per cent of global supply, have been cut off from the market.
This marks one of the largest oil supply shocks on record.
News360 Info reports that the May increase mirrors the 206,000 bpd adjustment agreed for April during the alliance’s previous meeting on March 1, just as the conflict began to impact oil flows.
OPEC+, which comprises 22 member countries, has in recent years relied on a core group of eight nations to make monthly production decisions.
These countries had collectively increased output by about 2.9 million barrels per day between April and December 2025 before pausing adjustments from January to March 2026.
With the next meeting scheduled for May 3, attention will be on whether the alliance can respond effectively to the evolving crisis.
