The pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, is expected to fall to around ₦800 per litre in the coming weeks or months, according to oil marketers and industry analysts.
News360 Info reports that this projection comes as crude oil prices decline and the Naira-for-Crude arrangement for local refiners resumes.
On Wednesday, April 16, 2025, Dangote Petroleum Refinery made its second price reduction in less than a week, slashing its ex-depot price for petrol to ₦835 per litre, marking a ₦30 reduction from ₦865, which had been implemented just six days earlier. This is the third downward adjustment in the past six weeks, reflecting a significant shift in the pricing structure of refined products.
Industry players indicate that if crude oil prices continue to drop to $50 per barrel, petrol prices could reach ₦800 per litre, with the reduced reliance on foreign exchange to purchase products contributing to the price reduction. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was priced at approximately $65 per barrel on Wednesday.
The recent price cuts come as the government has revived the Naira-for-Crude policy, which allows local refiners, like Dangote Refinery, to buy crude oil at favorable exchange rates and refine it locally, thereby reducing Nigeria’s dependence on foreign exchange for fuel imports.
The Ministry of Finance announced last week that the policy is a long-term strategy aimed at reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined products and strengthening energy security.
Chinedu Ukadike, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), confirmed that the drop in fuel prices is a direct result of the Naira-for-Crude initiative, as well as global crude price fluctuations.
According to The PUNCH, he noted that if crude oil prices continue to decline, petrol prices could fall to ₦650-₦700 per litre.
However, he highlighted that marketers are currently absorbing losses due to the lower prices, as their landing costs are still high.
In addition to the crude oil price drop, the latest price adjustments by Dangote Petroleum Refinery aim to make petrol more affordable for consumers.
A statement by the refinery’s Chief Branding and Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, emphasized that the price reductions would have a positive ripple effect across the economy, especially during the Easter season.
He also stated that Dangote Refinery remains committed to providing high-quality petrol at affordable rates, benefiting consumers nationwide.
However, not all stakeholders are optimistic about the price adjustments. Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, expressed concerns about the instability caused by frequent price changes, which he said are disrupting the sector.
He warned that arbitrary price changes could lead to uncertainty for both marketers and consumers.
Despite these challenges, the general expectation is that fuel prices will continue to decrease, with some analysts predicting a further drop to around ₦700 per litre if the Naira-for-Crude arrangement remains in place and global crude prices continue to decline.
