With just a few days to the 2023 elections in Nigeria, a fresh report has identified states where election manipulation might take place. The report titled “Election Manipulation Risk Index (EMRI)” which was released on Friday, identified states that could suffer high risk, medium risk, and low risk of election manipulation respectively.
According to the EMRI report, twenty-two states are at a high risk of election manipulation. They are: Sokoto, Kwara, Oyo, Kaduna, Lagos, Osun, Ekiti, Niger, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Adamawa, Taraba, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom, Abia, Enugu, Anambra, Imo, Rivers, Plateau and Bauchi.
The report also identified twelve states that are at medium risk of election manipulation and listed them as Zamfara, Kebbi, Ogun, Yobe, Borno, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, Kogi, Edo, Delta, and Bayelsa.
Two states – Gombe and Ondo as well as the FCT were categorized under the low risk of election manipulation.
The Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) that released the report said they relied on observations, content analysis, and expert interviews measured on six variables.
Based on their research, they came out with the report to curb election manipulation, facilitate strategic election planning, and promote citizens’ oversight of the electoral process.
“The central objective of the EMRI is to facilitate systematic and coherent monitoring of the insidious nature of election manipulation in the build-up to Nigeria’s 2023 general elections,” the report reads.
“The EMRI indicators reflect a comprehensive understanding of the electoral process and the interplay of actors in the election value chain.
“Though limited in scope, the EMRI can be used by election stakeholders to spotlight issues likely to impact the integrity of the 2023 general elections.
“It should be seen as a rapid scanning tool, rather than an in-depth solution for threats of election manipulation,” the report claimed.
The CSOs that worked on the report include: Yiaga Africa, Center for Journalism Innovation and Development, Corporate Accountability and Public Participation in Africa (CAPPA), SBM Intelligence, Dataphye, International Press Centre, and several others.
The others include Institute for Media and Society, SOS Children’s Villages, Justice, Development, Peace Movement, ElectHer, and Policy, and Legal Advocacy Centre. Partners for Electoral Reform, The Albino Foundation, The Kukah Centre, Enough is Enough Nigeria, Institute for Democracy For Electoral Assistance.
