Following unprecedented food assistance needs in 2017 and little improvement being anticipated in 2018, Nigeria and 44 countries may require emergency food assistance in 2018. This was contained in a report from Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET).
Given that no improvement in underlying conditions is expected in these 45 countries, the provision of humanitarian assistance will be a primary determinant of whether Famine is averted, the report stated. It said that an estimated 76 million people are expected to require emergency food assistance during 2018. It explained that Governments, international agencies, donors, and other stakeholders should make all possible efforts to resolve conflict, ensure humanitarian access, and provide timely, multi-sectoral assistance to prevent large-scale loss of life.
Particularly, the study noted that conflict will be the primary driver of food security emergencies during 2018 including in Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria and the Lake Chad region, South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. “In these countries, on-going insecurity will continue to disrupt livelihoods, limit trade and market functioning, displace households, and hinder the delivery of humanitarian assistance,” stated the report. “Poor rainfall and its impact on crop and livestock production will also contribute to a high level of need in some countries.
“In parts of the Horn of Africa, a severe drought during the past 18 months has decimated livestock herds and sharply reduced crop production, particularly in Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia.” Forecasts also indicate that below-average rainfall is likely during the spring 2018 rainy season, in part due to the ongoing La Niña. In addition, rainfall in some pastoral areas of West Africa has been mediocre to poor for a third consecutive year, and forecasts for the upcoming seasons in Southern Africa and Central Asia indicate an increased likelihood of drier than usual conditions.
As a result of conflict, belowaverage rainfall, and a range of other shocks (e.g., currency depreciation, Fall Army Worm), an estimated 76 million people are likely to require emergency food assistance during 2018. The report said that this figure is 60 per cent higher than in 2015 and only slightly lower than the 83 million people in need during 2017.
The decline between 2017 and 2018 is due, almost entirely, to improvements in Southern Africa. The size of the food insecure population is likely to grow in most other countries. Thirteen countries according to the report, are expected to have more than one million people (local populations, IDPs, and refugees) in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse and in need of emergency assistance during 2018.
These include: Yemen (15 million); Syria, South Sudan, DRC, Ethiopia, and Nigeria (5.00–6.99 million); Afghanistan, Somalia, and Sudan (3.00–4.99 million); and Kenya, Iraq, Uganda, and Pakistan (1.00–2.99 million) (Figure 2). Four countries face a credible risk of Famine during 2018. In Yemen, a country which relies on maritime imports for 80 percent of its food, the closure of all ports to commercial trade risks a major deterioration in food insecurity, which is already severe. In northeast Nigeria, while humanitarian access has improved in some areas, a Famine may be ongoing in remaining inaccessible areas of Borno State where access to food has been limited by ongoing conflict.
